More people = More Pollution in Marinwood Lucas Valley

More People = More Pollution in Marinwood-Lucas Valley

Current plans in the 2012 Housing Element will increase the population of Marinwood Lucas Valley by 37.5% if built.  This means that pollution and traffic will increase by at least 37.5% too.

From www.planbayareamyth.org

Increased Carbon Emissions
Plan Bay Area claims that housing 2.1 million new residents in transit-based apartments will decrease carbon emissions and traffic congestion. However, here's the fact: even if individual emissions drop 15 percent by 2035 (the goal of S.B.375) if population increases at the same time by 30 percent (2.1 million), then total emissions will rise by 10.5 percent (.85 x 130 = 110.5% of current emissions). The math is the same as asking whether you'll have more money if 130 people give you $0.85 each ($110) than if 100 people give you $1.00 each ($100). That would be the right choice for dollars coming in but not for carbon emissions going out into the air.

• From the State of California Air Resources Board - Resolution 10-31, Sept. 31, 2010, page 6: "WHEREAS, on July 28, 2010, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) Board took action to recommend Regional Targets of 7 percent per capita reduction by 2020 and 15 percent reduction by 2035 for its region;..." This per person measurement contradicts the intent of the California Global Warming Solutions Act (A.B. 32) by allowing for an actual increase in total Bay Area emissions.

• From the Bay Area Air Quality Management District Report, December 2008, pages 8-9: "In 2007, 102.6 Million Metric tons of CO2-equivalent (MMTCO2E) greenhouse gases were emitted by the San Francisco Bay Area (95.5 MMTCO2E were emitted within the Bay Area District and 7.1 MMTCO2E were indirect emissions from imported electricity)." Factoring the emissions increase from a 30 percent population increase outlined above, 10.5 percent of 102.6 MMTCO2E means a net increase of 10.77 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions every year.

• Indirect emissions: The numbers used by developers, lobbyists and state agencies do not include the indirect greenhouse gas emissions from the manufacture of products for the individual needs of all those additional people - from hairspray to horseradish to heaters - whether they drive cars or take public transportation, nor the emissions from demolition of existing structures, production of building materials or operation of heavy construction equipment. Here's a helpful graphic illustrating global sources of total emissions.

• According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the average American household is responsible for 59 tons of CO2 annually (including indirect emissions). If each new resident in the Bay Area emits 15% less than that, that figure will be 50.15 tons per household. So those 903,000 new households will add over 45 million tons of CO2 emissions to the air in the Bay Area each year.

• These emission reductions are not even mandatory. From S.B. 375, The Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act of 2008, page 8 (B): "Each metropolitan planning organization shall prepare a sustainable communities strategy... ...(vii) set forth a forecasted development pattern for the region, which, when integrated with the transportation network, and other transportation measures and policies, will reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles and light trucks to achieve, if there is a feasible way to do so, the greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets approved by the state board; and (viii) allow the regional transportation plan to comply with Section 176 of the federal Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. Sec. 7506)."