Dear Planners and Politicians of Plan Bay Area 2040:
I am writing you today to express my comments about Plan
Bay Area 2040 which presumes to guide the entire San Francisco Bay Region to a
better future WITHOUT citizen input. Like
my 6000 neighbors in Marinwood –Lucas Valley in unincorporated Marin, I already
have a plan for the next twenty five years of my life and Plan Bay Area 2040 it
isn’t. I believe that America’s promise
of “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” does not need a bureaucracy to
implement. Sadly, MTC and ABAG disagrees and has laid out a
plan which at its outset promises to diminish the middle class and make
transportation and housing more expensive.
In my community of Marinwood in unincorporated Marin, 80%
of the RHNA allocations for Marin were placed in just 3 square miles of the
possible 840 square miles. Our bedroom
community has been identified as the preferred location for housing despite our
lack of shopping and employment opportunities. Plan Bay Area offers us nothing except
grief and higher taxes. We have
chronicled much of it on www.savemarinwood.org
Here is a list of issues of concern in no particular
order.
1.)
Plan Bay
Area 2040 will lead to displacement of tens of thousands of people, destroy the
social fabric of hundreds of communities and neighborhoods. It will hit
ethnic communities the hardest due to economic and race criteria as a basis for
community redevelopment . It takes
decades for communities to emerge and only a few years to destroy. Hunters point, San Francisco Mission, the Filmore District are just a few examples
of dislocation of communities. Marin
City, a traditionally minority community
is slated for redevelopment in Marin.
Generations of African Americans have been born, raised, married and
passed in this tight knit community. It is a source of strength and pride for
its residents. Now, developers have an
eye on this well located community to put market rate and luxury housing which
will push out old residents due to construction and economic pressures. It is wrong and immoral and at its heart,
racist as it presumes that to “improve” the community, housing opportunities
must be made available for Caucasians.
I filmed many community meetings there.
Here is a small sample. https://youtu.be/flcxZPLuGtI?list=PL_BuJGc-hEs7RhcIg2ff79CAWaG2iKulD
2.)
Plan Bay
Area 2040 fails to anticipate innovation in the changing workplace due to
automation. No one can predict the
future but that doesn’t seem to stop planners from trying.
We know the vast changes that
have come to our own lifetimes due to technical innovation but we could have
hardly predicted how the pattern of life would change with advent of personal
computers, the internet and bioscience.
Future innovations in science, medicine, robotics and transportation are
likely to change the direction of the Bay Area in ways we cannot even
imagine. It is foolish to plan a
transportation system without considering the impact of self driving cars, narrow
vehicles, self chaining cars and changing demographics in the Bay Area due to
the high cost of government.
3.)
Plan Bay
Area 2040 fails to account for the near certainty of an earthquake and other
natural disasters that could lead to the displacement and disruption of
thousands of people’s lives. Survivors
from such an event will need new homes.
Where will they live?
4.)
Plan Bay
Area 2040 does not adjust for the business cycle and recessions. No growth happens at a regular rate as PBA
2040 suggests. In fact, the boom and
bust cycles in San Francisco has been happening since its founding.
5.)
Plan Bay
Area 2040 fails to assume the drag on construction and business formation
created by high housing development fees and taxation. California is one of the highest taxed
states in the USA. Marin County is one of the highest taxed counties in
California. This makes Marin County a poor choice
to build or expand a business. PBA 2040
assumes unlimited growth without considering the effect of low cost
jurisdictions. Without business, there
is no job growth. The overly optimistic
assumption of job growth in Marin by the MTC is unsupported by historical jobs
data.
6.)
Plan Bay
Area 2040 Urban Sim model is error prone and proven to be unreliable. Since Urban Sim has been in use for Plan Bay
Area, staff at the MTC has been given feedback that it has huge errors. For example, the cities of Sausalito and
Corde Madera have “lot inventory” in FEMA flood zones and areas that are not
economic to develop. In Marinwood Lucas
Valley, landslide risk and steep
hillsides limit large scale developments.
Urban Sim is too inaccurate to use as a planning tool.
7.)
Sea Level
rise is ignored as a limiting factor in Plan Bay Area 2040. Freeways, housing developments and rail
tracks are predicted to be under water in 2040.
If Plan Bay Area 2040 has been created to thwart climate change, why
isn’t Sea level rise taken seriously? We
know that due to improved efficiency of automobiles that GHG targets have been
met WITHOUT Plan Bay Area. Will sea
level change happen or not? Guessing an
outcome that will cost citizens billions of dollars and destroy communities is
not acceptable.
8.)
Quality
of life is not considered in Plan Bay Area 2040. Planners assume that the sun will always
shine, San Francisco Bay Area will lead the world technology markets and public
transit will never break down. They
never consider that public transit, for example, will cost the local economy
jobs and economic output. They never
consider the working mom who cannot take public transit and care for her
children or that the high cost of living will not enable families to provide a
decent quality of life.
9.)
Infrastructure
upgrades will be needed but no funding source has been identified in Plan Bay
Area 2040. When communities expand, they need new schools, sewer systems
and expanded government services. Who
will pay for this expansion? Since taxes
are among the highest in the nation now, will middle class families be willing
to pay more taxes for the “privilege” of high density housing? Probably
not. It will invite emigration to
neighboring states.
10.) Local democratic representation is ignored
in favor of a centralized bureaucracy that is unaccountable to local concerns
in Plan Bay Area 2040. This model
of governance has been proven a failure across the United States and the
globe. It is antithetical to our
democratic traditions and
disenfranchises citizens. Many will flee the Bay Area in favor of local
governments that recognizes a citizen’s right to self government.
11.) Outreach in Plan Bay Area 2040 has been
insufficient and ignored the number one constituency of voters- working
families. The “Plan Bay Area” club of
politicians, bureaucrats and special interest groups do not represent the
majority opinion. Most people are
blissfully unaware of Plan Bay Area 2040 but rest assured they will learn- and
rebel once the plans are felt by the average voter. Marin County, for example was only given one
public meeting barely a week prior to public commentary deadline. Only a handful a people of the 500,000 Marin
residents attended. Surely, the
Planners at MTC are deluding themselves if they think people won’t notice. Those of us who attended the meetings noted
how flimsy the arguments of Plan Bay Area are.
There will be a steep political price to pay for manipulating the
public.
12.) The regressive taxation to be implemented
in Plan Bay Area 2040 will hurt lower and middle class citizens the hardest. VMTs, bridge tolls, congestion fees, toll
roads will create greater social inequity than ever before. Workers, business and the labor force who
must rely on personal transportation will be forced to pay the highest
cost. This will definitely reduce
economic output and incentivize people to flee the state.
It will be far better to allow Plan Bay Area 2040 the
chance to achieve TRUE public approval with a full engagement process known as
VOTING. The central planning scheme is
only as strong as the public support.
A vote of “no plan” is far superior to the costly,
centrally planned nightmare known as Plan Bay Area 2040.
Respectfully,
Stephen Nestel
Marinwood, CA 94903
A youtube playlist featuring many of the Plan Bay Area
many moments can be seen at
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