Proof that the Marinwood PDA (101 Corridor PDA) targets EVEN MORE GROWTH than the countywide Plan

Proof that Plan Bay Area Targets More Growth In the Hwy 101 Corridor PDA Than What Was Contemplated By The Countywide Plan

From County Staff Report
Because housing is being focused in a limited number of areas, the projected growth rate of 34% in County Priority Development Areas is considerably higher than the actual total growth rate of approximately 10.5% and annual growth rate of 0.4% that Unincorporated Marin as a whole has experienced over the past 25 years. ...



The County Staff has sent out some incomplete information in which they have tried to down play the development and population growth expectations associated with Priority Development Areas (PDAs). I wish to share with you information from two reports, one from the Marin County Staff and one from the Transportation Authority of Marin, which demonstrate that intense growth is indeed anticipated in Priority Development Areas, much more than what was previously anticipated in the same areas.

County Staff Report Prepared for the 5-17-11 BOS Public Hearing re: Hwy 101 PDA:
The County Staff Report prepared for the May 17, 2011 Marin County Board of Supervisors (BOS) Public Hearing clearly shows that projected (and therefore expected) growth has been intensified in the Hwy 101 Corridor Priority Development Area.

The Staff Report talks about how the "Initial Vision Scenario", which was the first draft of Plan Bay Area, targets more growth in the Urbanized 101 Corridor Priority Development Area (PDA) (a "Transit Neighborhood" PDA) than what the Marin Countywide Plan had planned for in the same area.  To the best of my knowledge, the expected growth for Marin County in the final version of Plan Bay Area was the same or not much different than the expected growth for the County in the Initial Vision Scenario.  Most definitely, the Hwy 101 Corridor PDA has remained a "Transit Neighborhood" PDA, which is expected to accommodate a density range of 20-50 units per acre.

The Report specifically states; "The Initial Vision Scenario's total estimated growth for housing units and jobs in Unincorporated Marin over the next 25 years is similar to the total buildout projections in the Countywide Plan.  However, the Initial Vision Scenario focuses more housing growth within the Urbanized 101 Corridor Priority Development Area (PDA) and San Quentin Growth Opportunity Area (GOA) than is currently contemplated by the Countywide Plan.  The Initial Vision Scenario assumes 710 units (34% growth) in the PDAs as compared to approximately 450 units (10.2% growth) allowed in these areas by the Countywide Plan."

Please note that the Countywide Plan's (CWP) Final Environmental Impact Report (FEIR) found that "land uses and development consistent with the 2007 Countywide Plan would result in 42 significant unavoidable adverse impacts." If Plan Bay Area targets more intense growth in the PDAs than what the CWP planned for, then it stands to reason that, if the additional development is realized, then it would create even more impacts than those identified in the CWP's FEIR and/or exacerbate the significant unavoidable adverse impacts already identified in the CWP's FEIR.

Excerpts from the attached Staff Report prepared for the  5-17-11 BOS Public Hearing:
"The development areas along the Urbanized 101 Corridor have been defined as a "Transit Neighborhood" place type in the Initial Vision Scenario.... An increase of 710 future housing units have been projected in the Urbanized 101 Corridor PDA, which represents a total growth rate of 35% and an annual growth rate of 1.4% over the next 25 years. Because housing is being focused in a limited number of areas, the projected growth rates of the Initial Vision Scenario are considerably higher than the actual total growth rate of approximately 10.5% and annual growth rate of 0.4% that Unincorporated Marin as a whole has experienced over the past 25 years." ...

"On the basis of land use intensity the Countywide Plan density ranges for the Urbanized 101 Corridor are either within or below the typical Transit Neighborhood density range of 20-50 units per acre.  Therefore, accommodating the focused growth in the Initial Vision Scenario would require increasing densities above the maximum number of housing units currently allowed by the Countywide Plan.  However, all of the areas within the Urbanized 101 Corridor are presently being considered as potential housing sites with densities of 30 units per acre for the County's Housing Element update." ...

"The Initial Vision Scenario's total estimated growth for housing units and jobs in Unincorporated Marin over the next 25 years is similar to the total buildout projections in the Countywide Plan.  However, the Initial Vision Scenario focuses more housing growth within the Urbanized 101 Corridor PDA and San Quentin GOA than is currently contemplated by the Countywide Plan.  The Initial Vision Scenario assumes 710 units (34% growth) in the PDAs as compared to approximately 450 units (10.2% growth) allowed in these areas by the Countywide Plan."

The document then ask questions like:
 "Is the proposed place type appropriate for your Priority Development Area (PDA) and Growth Opportunity Area (GOA):  Given the availability of resources, is the proposed urban scale, mix of uses, and expected household growth appropriate?"

"If the Initial Vision Scenario growth estimate is too high, should some of the growth be shifted to another part of the unincorporated county, to cities, and towns in Marin, or elsewhere in the region?"

April 25, 2013 Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) Report re: the Marin Transportation Investment Strategy:
The Transportation Authority of Marin's Report, dated 4-25-2013,  about the Marin Transportation Investment Strategy (MTIS) includes information about Priority Development Areas.  To view this report, please follow this link:
http://www.tam.ca.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=5997

According to TAM, the MTIS is a PDA Growth and Investment Strategy to guide the programming of transportation funding for implementation of Plan Bay Area goals, specifically supporting Priority Development Areas.

TAM Report, Addendum - "Marin Transportation Investment Strategy", Page 17:
Marin’s PDAs
"PDAs are projected to take on a significant share of Marin County’s growth over time. ABAG and MTC use PDAs as the foundation for identifying areas of future population and employment growth in Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS), also known as Plan Bay Area. According to the projections for 2040, Marin County's three PDAs are expected to accommodate 34% of the county's projected growth in housing units and 23 % of its growth in jobs."

Yet, the PDAs consist of a tiny amount (less than 5%) of the developable land in the County. Therefore, intense growth is expected in the PDAs.

TAM Report, Addendum 11 "Marin Transportation Investment Strategy", page 12 states:
"According to the Association of Bay Area Government’s “Application Guidelines for Priority Development Area Designation,” to qualify to be a PDA an area must meet these definitions:

Housing – The PDA has plans for a significant increase in housing units, consistent with the selected place type from the Station Area Planning Manual, including affordable units, which can also be a part of a mixed use development that provides other daily services, maximizes alternative modes of travel, and makes appropriate land use connections.  (Marin Transportation Investment Strategy)..."

TAM Report, page 2 states:
"3. Transportation Investment Strategy
The purpose of the PDA Growth and Investment Strategy is to “ensure that Congestion Management Agencies (CMAs) have a transportation project priority setting process for OBAG funding that supports and encourages development in the region’s PDAs.”

The two above referenced reports (one from the Marin County Staff and one from the Transportation Authority of Marin) demonstrate that an area included in the Hwy 101 Corridor PDA is expected to experience intense growth in development and population.

This map published by the Association of Bay Area Government shows that Marinwood is planned to have up to 50 units per acre as a transit neighborhood (not the 30 units per acre they claim. That is just the MINIMUM units per acre).  Susan Adams has only TEMPORARILY removed the Marinwood PDA from consideration she has said she is willing to advocate for it again in the future AFTER the election.